Posts by Cindy Nelson

After 200% Increase, Supply Still Nearly 40% Below Normal

Sale Prices Up 3.5% Since December

For Buyers:

Rates defied industry predictions once again and rose over a point from 5.99% to 7.1% between February 2nd and March 2nd. For the past 4 weeks, rates have hovered in the upper 6% range, figuratively "pinching the hose" on demand during the popular Spring season for buyers. At 9,001, contracts are at their 4th lowest count since 2005, the lowest counts were in 2006-2008 and normal range is 11,000-13,000. Buyers are not the only ones holding back due to higher mortgage rates, sellers are too. New listings added to the Arizona Regional MLS are the lowest ever recorded going back at least 23 years. This may be shocking to some as there has been a 200% increase in supply year-over-year, but last year at this time supply was merely 4,820 active listings. The reality is that ARMLS active supply spiked over 300% last year between March and October, peaking around 20,000 listings. But since then it has declined 27% to 14,772, which is the 4th lowest supply count since 2005 for this time of year. Typically, active listings should be between 20,000-24,000 to be considered normal. In a nutshell, while higher rates have stunted demand for now, they are not expected to stay high forever. If and when they come down, expect demand to increase again. Meanwhile, FHA announced a reduction in the mandatory mortgage insurance premium (MIP), effective this month. FHA mortgage rates typically run about a half-point lower than conventional rates and this further reduction in the MIP could equate to an additional $100 off the monthly payment for borrowers. Combine that with the higher FHA loan limit of $530,150 for 2023, and many first-time home buyers may still find ownership within their reach. The best advice for buyers is to become educated on all the incentives available, from seller-paid rate buy-downs to down payment assistance, while the sellers remain open-minded.
 
For Sellers:

Low-level demand combined with even lower-level supply equals a seller's market for Greater Phoenix. Not a crazy one like the last 2 years, but since coming out of a buyer's market last December sale price measures have stopped dropping and have risen a modest 3.5% so far. Sellers continued to pay for buyers' closing costs on 48% of MLS closings in March, with half paying $9,000 or more. Fewer new listings hitting the market has meant less pressure on sellers to reduce their list price. As a result, weekly price reductions are actually falling instead of rising as they typically would at this time of year. Only 13-14% of inventory issued a price reduction last week compared to 25% of inventory last October. The average negotiation is 97.4% of the last list price this month, an improvement from 96.5% in January and in line with the pre-pandemic market of 2019. Current median days on market prior to an accepted contract is 32 days. Most seasonally-adjusted housing measures are reflective of a weak seller's market similar to 2015 where properties appreciated an average of 4.6% annually. The majority of cities in Greater Phoenix are now in seller's markets. Only 5 cities remain in buyer's markets at this stage. They are Queen Creek, Maricopa, Buckeye, Casa Grande, and Sun City West. The outskirts of town tend to be the first to enter buyer's markets and the last to come out. While these cities are lagging the rest of the valley, their measures have all improved 8-14% over the past month.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2023 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Phoenix Buyer Market - Aaaand It's Gone
Median Price Down $65,000 Since May 2022

For Buyers:
Last year, traditional buyers took a back seat to an influx of cash investors and speculators who outbid them. Then mortgage rates increased and suppressed their power even more. This was especially prominent in the market under $500K where owner occupant buyers made up just 56.8% of sales in June (normally 70-75%), and investors took 31% (normally 11-17%). As of November, traditional buyers have once again returned to 71% market share under $500K, and investors have retreated under 20%. Investors make up the majority of losses associated with recent price declines. This is great news, especially for first-time home buyers, as prices have come down significantly for starter homes. The median sales price for a 1,400-1,600 sq. ft. single family home has declined from $435K in May to $370K so far in January; a decline of $65,000, or 15%. At today's mortgage rate of 6%, that's a savings of at least $352 per month in payment. This is in line with the overall median sales price, which also declined $65,000 from $475K to $410K. To sweeten the pot, both FHA and conventional loan limits increased for 2023. FHA increased from $441,600 to $530,150, and many lenders began honoring the 2023 loan limit before 2022 ended. As a result, the market share of sales with FHA financing under $500K increased from a low of 11% in March to 20% by November. Many first-time home buyers take advantage of FHA financing as they have softer requirements for approval and their rates are typically lower than conventional loans. Some buyers believe that prices will continue to drop dramatically in 2023 and continue to wait. However, after a brief 4-week Buyer Market from November to December, the ratios of supply to demand are showing Greater Phoenix moving back into a Balanced Market. This means less downward pressure on prices going forward and, if inflation and mortgage rates continue to decline, the worst may be behind us.

For Sellers:
Happening right now is a shift out of the shortest Buyer Market ever recorded by the Cromford Report. The shift is a direct result of the fewest number of listings added to supply in the 4th quarter of the year going back to 2000. Fewer listings mean fewer competitors for sellers. Demand is still very low, but when it's met with low supply there is less downward pressure on price. In November, every region in Greater Phoenix was in a Buyer Market except for the Northeast Valley. By mid-January, Phoenix, Glendale, Mesa, Tempe, Avondale, Gilbert, and Chandler had all come out of Buyer Markets and into Balance, except for Chandler which leapt into a Seller Market. Not far behind are Peoria and Surprise.  The only large cities left in strong Buyer Markets are Goodyear, Queen Creek (including San Tan Valley), Maricopa, and Buckeye. This does not mean that sellers can expect 2021 and 2022 scenarios to come back. Price drops, negotiations, concessions, and rate buy-downs will continue to be the key to keeping buyers in the game this quarter. Currently, 51% of all January sales have involved some form of concession from the seller, with a median cost of $9,854; in line with the cost of a temporary rate buy-down. While Avondale is in a Balanced market, 85392 over the last 30 days showed 14 out of 15 sales with concessions and a median of $12,000 to buyers. In addition to concessions, final sale prices are showing sellers getting an average of 96.7% of their last list price. This is not unusual for a Balanced Market. The luxury market over $1.5M sees fewer concessions, but more price negotiation. January sales so far show sellers closing at an average of 94.5% of their last list price in this segment. Under $500K, sellers are closing at 97.4% of the list price. All in all, the majority of sellers are coming out ahead at closing. 65% of active resale listings have been owned for at least 2 years. The long-term appreciation rates for homes in Greater Phoenix are as follows using January sales to date:  25% for 2yrs., 50% for 3yrs., 63% for 4yrs., 70% for 5yrs., and 86%+ for 6yrs or more.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2023 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

More Buyers Got Help With Closing Costs in September
What To Expect for Housing in the 4th Quarter

For Buyers:
­The price reductions keep coming. Last week when mortgage rates hit 7.0%, the Greater Phoenix housing market responded with 4,427 price reductions, 24% of all active properties in the MLS. At least 50% of those dropped their price by $12,000 or more.

September saw 1,372 closings involving seller closing cost assistance to the buyer, equating to 23% of MLS sales, with a median concession of $7,000. This is a 334% increase from last June's count of just 316 sales involving concessions. New home sales through the MLS showed 33% with concessions, and 50% at $10,000 or more. OpenDoor, as a seller, paid concessions on 355 transactions, 77% of their sales through MLS, with 50% costing $6,000 or more.

Closing cost assistance is expected to continue to rise into the 4th quarter as mortgage rates continue to stay high and stifle demand for the time being. Aside from paying the buyer's costs for title insurance, pre-paid taxes, insurance, lending fees, and other closing costs, seller-paid concessions can also be used to buy down a buyer's mortgage rate, if applicable, and ease the pressure on their monthly payment.

For Sellers:
The 4th quarter is expected to be a test for sellers as mortgage rate hikes have reduced contract activity to levels not seen since 2008. Frankly, it's not the best time to sell if you have a choice in the matter. Unlike 2008 however, most sellers today do have a choice and those without an immediate need to sell have chosen to wait. This is reflected in some of the lowest counts of new listings coming on the market recorded at this time of year going back to 2001.

Fewer new listings is a ray of hope for existing properties on the market. If new listings are trickling in and new buyer contracts are trickling out, then overall supply does not spike and cause further downward pressure on price. Thus keeping the market in a delicate balance for now.

Prices hit their peak in May, shortly after mortgage rates hit 5% and before they peaked over 6% in June. Once that happened, buyer demand dropped dramatically and the reflection in prices started to show a trend downward. Now rates are near 7% and sale price per square foot is down 9.6% over the course of 4 months, currently measuring less than 1% higher than January 2022 and representing the elimination of appreciation achieved from January through May.

While this is disappointing to those who purchased this year, 66% of active sellers in the MLS (new homes excluded) have owned their home for 2 years or longer. This means that even with the most recent downturn in price, the 2-year appreciation rate from September 2020 to September 2022 is still 40.3% based on per square foot measures, and the median sale price is $112,000 higher, indicating most sellers have enough equity to shoulder the added costs to sell in this marketplace if they must.

Finally heading into the 4th quarter, expect marketing times to increase as they typically do this time of year. Median days on market prior to contract was 31 days last week. From October through December, active days prior to contract is known to rise anywhere from 44 to 56 days historically, with 50% of listings going longer.

The key words for sellers in this "new" market are condition, price, concessions, and patience.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2022 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

If you're looking for a buyer's market, Buckeye, Queen Creek, and Maricopa will provide buyers with the upper hand when it comes to negotiating. Here is a look at the rest of the Phoenix metro area real estate market. 

This chart shows you the Cromford Market Index (CMI). 

CMI > 110 = Favors Sellers

CMI of 90-110 = Balanced Market

CMI < 90 = Favors Buyers

As you can see, Gilbert is on the cusp of a buyer's market and Surprise and Tempe could follow within days.  This week, just 6 of the 17 largest cities in the Phoenix Metro area are statistically in a seller's market.  Two of those cities, Goodyear and Avondale, could move into a balanced market shortly. 

Overall, the demand for the entire Phoenix Metro area is currently at 81%. Supply is at 65.6%. Supply has increased significantly during the past 3+ months. In late April 2022, supply was at 24% and demand was at 108%.  Higher interest rates are the primary reason demand has fallen. With fewer sales, supply has been able to accumulate.

Bottom Line: Emotions are crashing, not the real estate market. The market is cooling quicker than anticipated partly due to an overreaction to higher interest rates.

For buyers, you finally have more homes to choose from and less competition. Explore your financing options. Ask about loan programs such as a 2/1 Buydown to obtain a lower interest rate. The 2/1 Buydown allows you to take 2% off the current interest rate for the 1^st year, followed by 1% off during the 2^nd year, then the original interest rate resumes thereafter. If interest rates drop, buyers can refinance to lock in a lower permanent interest rate. And the BEST part is many sellers are currently contributing towards the buydown fee. 

For sellers, gone are the days when homes sold over a weekend. Now you can expect to wait about 21 days before you have an executed contract. Of course, it depends on your location and price point among other factors. A conservative pricing strategy typically results in more showings and shorter days on the market. Decluttering and first impressions go a long way. Be prepared to make repairs but don't jump the gun until you confirm which ones will give you the results you're looking for. If you also need to buy a home, there's a great possibility you can purchase a home with a contingency to sell your home first. 

Cindy Nelson is an Arizona native and Realtor with Realty ONE Group and serves the Phoenix Metro area and the White Mountain region. Cindy is a subscriber to the Cromford Market Report and an active Trusted Advisor University member. 

Is the greater Phoenix real estate market crashing?  The short answer is no, but it is cooling at a much faster rate than anticipated. This chart shows you the Cromford Market Index (CMI) since 2001. Here is what you need to know about this report:

CMI of 90-110 = balanced market

CMI > 110 = favors sellers

CMI < 90 = favors buyers

The drop from May 2022 to June 2022 decreased from 385.2 to 272.2 during that time. That's the fastest decline in the history of the Cromford Market Index. This decline was impacted by rising interest rates and increasing supply. 

As you can see, sellers are losing their leverage quickly. This means sellers need to be prepared for longer days on the market, fewer offers, the possibility of having to make buyer-requested repairs and/or offering a credit, and maybe even offering a home warranty.

Buyers, don't be fooled by this weakening Seller's market. While we are presently seeing more list price reductions, this hasn't impacted the purchase price at this time. The gap between supply and demand is still great, so home prices are presently still rising. Now is a great time to take advantage of a loan program with the option to lock in an interest rate prior to finding a home. Also keep in mind, before we reach the point where home prices start decreasing, we must reach a balanced market first. 

While it's not possible to predict where the market will be a year from now, these two reports provide great indicators for what lies ahead in the coming months. 

Cindy Nelson is an Arizona native and Realtor with Realty ONE Group and serves the Phoenix Metro area and the White Mountain region. Cindy is a subscriber to the Cromford Market Report and an active Trusted Advisor University member. 

For Buyers:
It's the moment you've been waiting for, less competition and more supply in Greater Phoenix! Active supply is up 40% from this time last year, but all that gain has been achieved over the last 6 weeks with an increase of 45%. This is an enormous change from April's report where supply was only up 16% over last year and still below the count reported on January 1st. As of this report, the supply count is 7,157, still 72% below normal for this time of year but rising quickly.

The annual change in inventory is impressive, but it's the short-term growth that is sending shock waves throughout the market. Inventory listed between $400K-$500K is up 35% in just 3 weeks. Counts in all segments between $500K-$1M are up 99% in 6 weeks and the count from $1M-$1.5M is up 54%, also within 6 weeks. Not all price ranges are rising in inventory. Properties listed below $400K are still flying off the shelves and declining in supply.

The increase in inventory may seem like an early Christmas miracle, but it's not coming from a massive flood of new listings hitting the market. Visualize supply counts as the level of water in a bathtub, with new listings coming through the faucet and accepted contracts going down the drain. The water level can rise if there are more new listings coming through the faucet, or if there are fewer accepted contracts flowing down the drain. In this case, new listings are at normal levels and not excessive, but fast rising mortgage rates have reduced the number of accepted contracts and closed the drain. This is what is causing inventory in the "bathtub" to increase dramatically.

While recent interest rates are disappointing for many buyers, causing some to drop out and wait, history has shown us that they rarely stay high, or low, forever. While it's near impossible to predict when interest rates may begin to decline, if we look over the last decade when interest rates have risen by 1% or more within a year, it has taken anywhere from 1 to 3 years for them to return to their original starting point. Even when rates increased by a whopping 5% over 14 months from 1980-1981, it only took 1.5yrs to drop back to where they started. Future expected interest rate drops over the next few years along with moderate home price appreciation and monthly principal reductions may provide today's buyers the opportunity to lower their payments by hundreds of dollars down the road.

For Sellers:
The market is in the early stage of shifting out of an insane seller market and into a mere frenzy seller market. Before we know it, it could be a regular old hot seller market where properties still appreciate but take multiple weeks to sell, buyers don't waive their appraisal contingency, and sellers happily pay for home warranties. But before all of that happens, it starts with one simple act from a seller, a list price reduction.

As inventory has risen at a fast pace over the past 6 weeks, so have the number of weekly price reductions as sellers compete for fewer buyers. Listings between $400K-$500K have seen a 103% increase, with the median price drop at $13,000. Price drops in $500K-$800K range increased 157%, with median drops between $16,000 and $20,000. Drops in the $800K-1.5M range increased 125%, with a median drop between $25,000 to $50,000.

So far, price reductions have proven effective in keeping the median days prior to contract around 7 days. However, as inventory continues to rise in the coming weeks, price reductions may not be enough to keep some properties from lingering longer in active status, creating more choice for buyers and strengthening their bargaining power.

While the market is still strongly in favor of sellers, it is changing rapidly. For those sellers waiting to sell close the peak of price, this may be the time to list. Prices are still projected to continue rising, but at a slower pace over the next few months.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2022 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

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Sold in 3 days! Sold thousands over asking price! Watching these ads may give you the impression you're getting something out of the ordinary. In this brief market update, I review the Phoenix market conditions so you have a clear and accurate picture of what's normal. Those high-dollar ads come at a price. Find out how to choose the best real estate agent when it's time to sell or purchase a home. 

Cindy Nelson is an Arizona native and Realtor with Realty ONE Group and serves the Phoenix Metro area and the White Mountain region. This includes Phoenix, Gilbert, Mesa, Chandler, Tempe, Apache Junction, Queen Creek, Gold Canyon, Maricopa, Scottsdale, Phoenix, Glendale, Buckeye, Peoria, Surprise, Tolleson, Laveen, Sun City, Sun City Grand, Fountain Hills, Sun Lakes, Goodyear, Litchfield Park, San Tan Valley, Pinetop, Lakeside and Show Low.