Cindy Nelson AZ REALTOR Blog

Fact Check February - Don't Fall In Love With These 7 Narratives on Housing

There is no online shortage of armchair quarterbacks when it comes to prognostications on the future of home values and affordability. However, there are narratives that some people, and journalists, stubbornly hold to that are simply outdated or incorrect. Many of them were true a few years ago but are no longer true today. Here are just a few:

Myth #1 - Buyer demand is declining.
This was true in 2022 and 2023, but is no longer true today. While mortgage rates have knocked many buyers out of the game, buyer demand is now stable and following last year's trend with little reaction to rate fluctuations.

Myth #2 - There is very little to buy under $300K.
This was definitely true a few years ago, but not today. In February 2022, there were only 90 single family l...

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It's a Buyer's Market, Will Prices Drop?

For Buyers:

The buyer's market in Greater Phoenix is still young at just over 5 weeks old but isn't getting worse thanks to supply stabilizing over the past two weeks. For some, this scenario brings anticipation of a decline in sales prices, however there's more to this buyer's market than meets the eye. There have only been 3 other buyer's markets in Greater Phoenix over the last 25 years, and they are all unique in their circumstances and thus give us little to compare with our current market.

What can we expect in terms of price trends today with our new baby buyer's market? That depends on how long the market stays friendly towards buyers. Sales price is the last measure to respond to a shift from a seller advantage to a buyers advantage. The first measure to crack is the seller's asking price. When that doesn't improve buyer interes...

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For Buyers:

It may be hard to believe, but recessions are historically the beginning of a turnaround for the housing market. After enduring more than 2 years of declining sales, sellers and buyers may start moving and transacting again. While recessions are negative for the economy (as they coincide with higher unemployment), two things typically occur that turn the housing market positive.

The first is home value stabilization. In every recession since 1970 (except for one infamous recession in 2008) home values had minimal fluctuation and appreciation year-over-year. The second is mortgage rates. Every recession since 1970 saw mortgage rates decline while at least 90% of the labor force remained employed. According to the August employment report from the Arizona Dept of Economic Opportunity, private sector earnings rose 7.3% annually in June, and 5.3% in July. Both rates are higher than the rate of inflation, and higher than the rate of home price...

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2024 is on an upward trend in Greater Phoenix, but a few cities still offer a strong advantage to buyers. This month I pinpoint which Valley cities are in a seller's market and which ones are in a buyer's market. Get the scoop on the Phoenix Metro market conditions including the influence of mortgage rates.

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Cindy Nelson is an Arizona native and REALTOR with Realty ONE Group and serves the Phoenix Metro area and the White Mountain region. In her spare time, you'll find her volunteering in her community, supporting local small businesses, and enjoying all Arizona has to offer.